Nepal at a crossroads: Shekhar Koirala on Madhesis and a rising anti-India sentiment

Politicians in Nepal have a major task on their hands at the moment: getting the Madhesis to participate in the local elections.

Madhesis, people of Indian origin, are residents of Nepal's Terai area bordering India.

Veteran Nepali Congress politician Shekhar Koirala, who was an important part of the peace process with the Maoists, says Nepal is at a political crossroads.

According to him, politicians who think they can manage the issue of Madhesis on a later date are sorely mistaken as they may not be able to control the situation if the separatist movement in Madhesis, riding on disenchantment, is allowed to grow.

In a conversation with Catch, Koirala also discusses how the Indian government needs to introspect about why there is rising anti-India sentiment in Nepal.

Excerpts from the conversation:

What is the political situation in Nepal at this moment?

Nepal is at a crossroads. It is in election mode. Two phases of local elections are over, and the third phase is due in September. By 18 January 2018, we have to organise two more sets of important elections - the provincial and the General Elections. If the elections are not held in time, the Constitution would be in jeopardy.

Why do you say Nepal is at a crossroads?

If we do not solve the issue of Madhesis, other indigenous communities, the separatist movement in Madhes, which exists in a minor form, will come to the fore and gain in strength. It is very important for us to solve the Madhes issue now.

Is Sher Bahadur Deuba in a position to carry out the amendments demanded by the Madhesis?

The Nepali Congress and Prime Minister Deuba are all for the amendment of the Constitution. But you need a two-thirds majority for it.

With the Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist-Leninist), or UML, it is difficult to get to the two-thirds majority mark. Even if you manage it, it would just be a wafer thin margin.

If you cannot pass the amendments without the UML, then the question is: how long does one wait?

KP Oli and the UML have taken the ultra nationalist line which is more of a worldwide phenomenon, like you see it in the US with Donald Trump, in China with Xi Jinping or even in India with Narendra Modi.

At the same time, you have the separatist movement brewing in Madhes. If the major political leaders in Madhes get isolated, it will become problematic. So it is very important to carry out the Constitutional amendments. But for now, it does not look like if the Constitutional amendments will go through.

So supporting mainstream Madhesi politicians is important for the main political parties in Nepal?

It is very important. Secondly, if there is no constitutional amendment now, other smaller demands like amnesty for people in jail, increase in local bodies in province number 2, declaring some people as martyrs, should be done by the government since it can easily do it. The amendments depend on Parliament. It is very important to get them to participate in the elections.

Amendments are difficult without UML, which is unlikely to support them anyway. So in this scenario, will the September polls still be held?

Elections will happen, and the turnout will be more than 70%.

But the Madhesi parties may boycott it.

It is difficult to say whether they will boycott it or not. Mahant Thakur may opt to keep away from the polls. Let us see if other leaders follow suit.

The voter turnout may be high and the elections may happen but if you are not able to cajole the leadership…

Yes. Down the line, five or 10 years from now, the separatist movement will only gain in strength. This is a major fear. Nepali leaders think they can manage, but they won’t be able to. By all means the Madhesis should be brought in to participate in the elections. It will be nicer if it happens by the way of their demands of constitutional amendments.

You think the January elections and the general elections will be held on time?

We will have to hold them or the Constitution will get derailed. Some are of the opinion that they will be delayed by a year. But people will not accept it. And the situation in Nepal would only deteriorate.

What is the state of the Nepali Congress party?

Sher Bhadur Deuba is the Prime Minister and the President of the party. The party is very weak at the moment. The local elections result may reflect that.

When the NC was part of the Prachanda-led government, a few issues came up which would not have been acceptable to any democratic-minded individual. One is what is called the IGP (Inspector General of Police) case, where a fourth in line person was promoted out of turn, then there was problem in the appointment of ambassadors. The third major thing was the impeachment of the chief justice.

All these events dented the integrity, or whatever you may want to call it, of the Nepali Congress. If Prime Minister Deuba makes another misjudgement, it will be difficult for the January polls.

Coming to India-Nepal relations, why does the Kathmandu elite seem to be so anti-India?

The Kathmandu elite has been anti-India from the beginning. But in the '90s, when India helped in bringing in democracy, there was a positive sentiment.

But after the recent blockade, Nepali intellectuals got annoyed with India. They have this false sense of hope also that the Chinese will support us. It is not that the Chinese are not supporting us but it remains to be seen till what level they can go in our support, we need to be cognisant of that too. If we do not look at our relationship with both China and India and move forward, it will be problematic. Some people in Nepal talk of how Kangra is also ours, Darjeeling is also ours, that is not good. We should look at the future.

Has the anti-India feeling gone down?

No, it is increasing. People feel that whatever happens here, even when a minister is change, it is at India’s behest. This has to go. On the question of development, I am not saying India has not done much.

But there are several projects which are pending for years. Like the postal road on the border, or the Pancheshwar, which is pending without even a DPR, or even the rail link. So people get upset. India needs to introspect why the Nepalese are turning anti-India.