Karnataka jolts Congress to open its eyes & smell the coffee

If not for the last-minute coup pulled off by the Congress' old war-horses, the Karnataka Assembly election results would have come as a huge setback for the Congress party.

On its own, the party won just under 80 seats and was clearly about to lose the only big state it was holding on to. With the Lok Sabha elections less than a year away, this would have been considered a highly bad portent.

Thanks to the willingness of JD(S) leaders to work with them, the Congress party has been saved the ignominy of a rude push out of power. However, the tie-up with JD(S) is only a conciliatory arrangement and Congress must not harbour any illusions about its performance at the hustings.

Its seats have nose-dived to a paltry 78 from the 122 it won in 2013. Its total vote share has more or less remained where it was (38.0% as compared to 36.6% in 2013), while the BJP's vote share has nearly doubled (36.2% from 19.9% in 2013).

Initial analysis reflected a slide in the party's popularity among all kinds of voter groups, from Lingayats to Vokkaliggas to Muslims to SC/STs. One such analysis, done by NDTV, says Congress lost 19 seats in the Lingayat-dominated north central belt, 9 in the SC-ST dominated eastern belt, 7 in the coastal belt, 6 in the Vokkaliga-dominated southern belt and 2 among Muslim dominated seats.

The analysis shows BJP gaining 26, 17, 12, 3 and 7, respectively, in all these areas.

The Congress party's failure to win over the state's electorate appears complete, with blame on the shoulders of the state as well as central leadership. Siddaramaiah, now forced to vacate the chief minister's chair, has himself been defeated on one - Chamundeshwari - of the two seats he contested. The only solace for him is the victory of his son from his previous seat, Varuna.

Similar to the faith reposed in Amarinder Singh for the Punjab polls, Congress high command had given Siddaramaiah full charge in Karnataka, from ticket allotment to leading the campaign. However, unlike Singh, Siddaramaiah failed to deliver.

Blueprint failure

The mandate can also be looked upon as a referendum on the performance of the government he led for the past five years. However, the failure to win elections is more often a failure of strategy, than the actual performance. In any case, the state has never allowed any CM to come back to power for a second consecutive term, since 1985.

What is amply clear is that none of the tricks devised by Siddaramaiah, from raising Kannada sub-nationalism through the demand for a state flag to appeasing the numerically-strong Lingayats by recommending minority status for them, worked.

In terms of strategy, the Congress party also appears to have made a huge mistake by not going for a pre-poll alliance with key players like JD(S) and BSP. Both parties have unambiguously accused the grand old party of arrogance and disrespect for regional parties.

Failure to stitch alliances also reflects an inaccurate estimation of the party's own strength. Had Siddaramaiah assessed that his party will not be able to make it on its own, he would have leaned towards an alliance from the outset.

It is also the Central leadership's fault to not foresee this. The party has already been found wanting on the alliance front in Uttar Pradesh, with the Samajwadi Party and Bahujan Samaj Party joining hands but the Congress party staying away.

In Karnataka, the process for government-formation is likely to go down to the wire now. The matter might even get dragged to the courts and there is no saying what the outcome will be. However, it will serve the Congress well to look at the shortcomings of its electoral strategy, with an eye on subsequent polls, including the upcoming Lok Sabha polls.