Himachal Pradesh polls: How Virbhadra Singh has brought Congress back in the game

Around a month ago, Congress seemed down and out in the poll bound state of Himachal Pradesh. But under Chief Minister Virbhadra Singh, the party has staged a resurrection and now it is giving the BJP a run for its money in the upcoming Assembly polls.
Chief Minister Virbhadra Singh has once again proved to be a veteran of state politics as he enters yet another battle as the commander in chief of his party.

Observers say that the turnaround came once he was declared the chief ministerial face by the Congress vice president Rahul Gandhi at the party rally in Mandi on October 7. Thereafter he was also made in charge of the party's campaign committee in the state. Once the fog lifted over these issues, the rest started falling in place.

“Another thing that goes in favour of the Congress is the BJP's top leadership going on the defensive at the national level. The change in Prime Minister Narendra Modi's tone on Goods and Services Tax (GST) is one of the indicators. Otherwise he was boasting about everything,” points out an observer.

“There has been a sudden spring in the gait of the Congressmen. Party workers and Virbhadra supporters are now working overtime. The first list of candidates that has been declared by the party, also bears his stamp as it is his men who dominate the list,” points out a Congress supporter from Jubbal.

Observers say that Virbhadra played a masterstroke by shifting his constituency from Shimla (Rural) to Arki in Solan district. While Shimla district and upper Himachal have traditionally remained Congress bastions, it is the lower and central part of Himachal that the party needs strengthening.

“It's a clever move. By contesting from Arki, he has bolstered the Congress chances in both the Solan and Bilaspur districts. Bilaspur happens to be the home turf of senior BJP leader and Union minister Jagat Prakash Nadda. If the Congress manages to breach this BJP fort, it will be a great achievement for Virbhadra and an equally great embarrassment for Nadda who is seen by his supporters as one of the claimants for the top post in the state,” points out a political observer.

It is also being pointed that Virbhadra has managed to neutralise state Congress chief Sukhvinder Singh Sukhu who was heading the dissident camp within the party. Virbhadra had his way in getting Sukhu to fight from Nadaun and not Shimla (Rural) which he was seeking. He has promised that he would be campaigning for Sukhu.

Another advantage that the Congress has at this point of time is that while it has named Virbhadra as its face, there is confusion in the BJP ranks on who would be the chief minister if the party comes to power.

The party is facing massive infighting, which was at display over the distribution of tickets. “Otherwise there was no need for Nadda to have breakfast with former chief minister Shanta Kumar and lunch with his successor Prem Kumar Dhumal on the day the final list was announced. He had to rush to them to appease them as they were miffed over their men not getting the tickets,” pointed a political observer.

“The BJP had to eat crow over ticket distribution as it had to go on the defensive. There was a lot of talk of the majority of MLAs to be dropped and senior leaders like Kishan Kapoor being denied tickets. This was all being referred to as the Gujarat Model of ticket distribution. But all that went for a toss. True the party has introduced more than a dozen new faces but it is far less than what was being talked about. The choice of Modi and BJP's national president Amit Shah overruled the suggestions of the local leadership in deciding the candidates. A case in point is Indu Goswamy who has been fielded from Palampur. Her close proximity to Modi over the years seems to have worked in her favour,” said the observer.

It is also being pointed that the centralised decision making in BJP affairs too has taken its toll in the form of resentment coming from local level leaders as has been the case on some seats in Mandi, Kangra and Sirmour.

“All these factors have resulted in the Congress regaining its foothold. Upto six months back the BJP and Modi were having a ball here. But for the Congress, it will still be an uphill task given the fact that they face anti-incumbency and the tradition of the people voting for an alternative every five years,” said the observer.

Virbhadra will have a lot of explaining to do particularly on the issue of unemployment and the deteriorating law and order scenario in the state. The two episodes of the rape and murder of a school girl in Kotkhai and the alleged murder of a forest guard in Mandi will be the talk of almost every political rally by the Opposition. Even in its stronghold of upper Himachal, the party will be facing hostility from the people on issues like infrastructure etc.

But the fact remains that the fight is now boiling down to a direct contest as has been the tradition in Himachal politics where local factors and connect of the candidates matter the most. From being almost out, the Congress is back in the contest once again.