Gurdaspur polls is not a one-off case. Congress' victory here will redefine politics in northern states

The Gurdaspur Lok Sabha by-poll cannot be taken as a one-off election. The thumping victory for the Congress candidate Sunil Jakhar will definitely have strong ramifications and redefine politics not only in Punjab, but also in the entire region, including the poll-bound Himachal Pradesh and Haryana.

In Punjab, the results have further pushed the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) to the margins in the state politics scenario. The party now has just one sitting Lok Sabha member out of the 13 seats from the state. BJP's tally in the state Assembly stands at mere three out of 117 seats now.

It is perhaps time for the party to rethink its alliance with the Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD), something its cadres have been seeking for more than two years now. These cadres are of the view that the party needs to go it alone contesting more and more seats and step out of the shadows of the Akalis to increase its base in rural Punjab. The SAD-BJP alliance was wiped out in the recent state Assembly polls primarily because of the public anger against the Akalis.

Waning fortunes

For the Congress, the biggest relief has come in form of Punjab continuing to reject the 'Congress mukt Bharat' rant of the BJP. The second factor, of course, is that the results of the 'Modi wave' fizzling out are there to be seen as demonetisation and the Goods and Services Tax (GST) implementation, along with the economic down-slide, were a major factor that played out in these polls.

The rape allegations against a former Akali minister Suchha Singh Langah and a rape case against the BJP candidate Swaran Singh Salaria in 2014 also had a role to play.

This was one of the rare polls where no top leader of the central BJP leadership came to campaign for its candidate despite the latter being a reportedly close to Baba Ramdev and being very 'resourceful'. Only union minister Rajyavardhan Singh Rathore had come to campaign for him but he is hardly known in this predominantly rural constituency.

Sources said that finance minister Arun Jaitley was expected to come but backed out at the last moment. The general perception is that Jaitley avoids coming to Punjab ever since he tasted a humiliating defeat at the hands of Punjab Chief Minister Captain Amarinder Singh in the 2014 Lok Sabha polls from the Amritsar seat.

Observers say that post demonetisation and the GST fiasco, he would further not want to visit Punjab, Haryana or even Himachal in the coming days lest he be held responsible for a party debacle in electoral contests.

Amarinder has come out saying that the Gurdaspur result is another shot in the arm for Congress' revival in the country.

“The party’s recent victory in several university students’ union elections and its resounding win in the Maharashtra civic polls just two days ago are clear indicators that the party’s fortunes are on the upswing and the result of the Gurdaspur by-poll further strengthen its prospects for the 2019 Lok Sabha elections,” Amarinder said.

The AAP angle

For the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), the results send a strong message home that the party needs to go back to the masses and once again start people-centric campaigns, particularly the Majha region where it has yet again failed to establish a foothold.

The party had failed to win even a single seat in the Assembly polls and this time too it had conceded defeat even before the results were announced.

The party dissolved its Pathankot and Gurdaspur units on the eve of the results. AAP needs to sort out issues of its hierarchy and leadership immediately if it hopes to see success in some form in the state.

“In the 2014 Lok Sabha polls, the party candidate Sucha Singh Chhotepur had secured 1.73 lakh which this time came down to a mere 23,000 plus votes. The party needs to see who or what is responsible for this decline,” said a political observer.

On to the other states

The Gurdaspur victory also provides a morale booster to the Congress in Himachal Pradesh. Until June, the scenario was that the BJP would sweep to power riding a Modi wave. But things have changed particularly after the GST implementation and the economic downturn showing its effect in the form of joblessness.

The scenario stands completely altered. Of course, the BJP has a head start because of the anti-incumbency baggage of the Congress but the contest will eventually boil down to hyper-local issues where the selection of candidates by both parties will play a very major role.

“The Gurdaspur victory has instilled confidence among our workers and supporters. It is a good omen that has come on the eve of Diwali. The Congress victory starts from Gurdaspur and will continue right up to the 2019 Lok Sabha polls,” said Vijay Pal Singh Chauhan, a young Congress leader from Seraj in Mandi district who is also the national co-ordinator of the party's 'Vichar Vibhag'.

He claimed that since the Gurdaspur constituency borders Himachal Pradesh, there is bound to be a spillover effect on the constituencies of the neighbouring Kangra and Chamba districts.

Observers say that the BJP deferred the announcing of its candidates for Himachal polls on Sunday after its candidate lost badly in the Gurdaspur poll.

In Haryana, the victory gives a boost to the Congress leaders who have already hit the ground, albeit divided, carrying out Parivartan rallies, Kisan Mazdoor Sammelans, and other public programmes.

With the popularity of the Manohar Lal Khattar-led BJP government waning fast, particularly after its failure to tackle the supporters of Dera Sacha Sauda chief Baba Gurmeet Ram Rahim Singh in Panchkula, both the opposition parties – the Congress and the Indian National Lok Dal (INLD) – have changed gears to fill the emerging political space.

Both the parties are leaving no opportunity available to attack the Khattar government of mishandling things and the BJP for not delivering on any of its promises.

“The Congress standing divided makes no difference. They will all come together if they sense the power in the forthcoming Lok Sabha and assembly polls. Their 'Man bhed' (difference of hearts) will turn into 'Mat bhed' (difference of opinion) by then,” pointed out a senior Chandigarh based political observer.

Edited by Jhinuk Sen