CSDS Survey shows how a UPA-BSP-SP-JD(S) alliance can defeat Modi in 2019

The latest Mood of the Nation Survey by the Centre for Study of Developing Societies and ABP News has revealed that Prime Minister Narendra Modi's popularity has dipped significantly, even though the National Democratic Alliance is still ahead of the United Progressive Alliance at this juncture.

The survey brings good news for the Opposition as well as provides a roadmap by which it could come close to defeating the mighty Bharatiya Janata Party machinery under Modi and Amit Shah. There are four key findings of the survey:

First, it shows that there's general dissatisfaction against PM Modi's government on a number of fronts, particularly in its handling of the economy and failure to generate jobs.

Second, Rahul Gandhi's popularity has increased and the gap between him and Modi as the country's preferred prime ministerial choice is about 10%.

Third, Modi's popularity has fallen in the very constituencies he has tried hard to woo: Dalits and Adivasis. It has also worsened among farmers and traders.

Fourth, it shows that the BJP-led alliance is likely to be decimated in South India and face significant losses in North, West and Central India. It will be able to make up for some of these losses through gains in the East.

However, the most significant aspect of the survey is that it provides a roadmap to the Opposition by which it can defeat Modi: pre-poll alliances.

According to the survey, the NDA is likely to get a vote share of 37%, around the same as what it got in the 2014 general elections. However, the UPA's projected vote share is 31%, 6% more than what it got in 2014. Significantly, CSDS has created another category “BSP and allies” comprising the Bahujan Samaj Party, Samajwadi Party, Janata Dal (Secular) and Indian National Lok Dal. This alliance is projected to get 10% of the votes. These cluster of parties are almost certain to align against the BJP. If the UPA enters into a pre-poll alliance with these cluster of parties, the combined vote share will be 41%, 4% ahead of the NDA.

This cluster of parties has already aligned with the Congress in Karnataka, where JD(S)'s HD Kumaraswamy was recently sworn in as the Chief Minister. In Uttar Pradesh too, this alliance could be on the cards if the upcoming bye-poll for the Kairana Lok Sabha is any indication. Here the SP, BSP and Congress are all supporting an SP leader contesting on a Rashtriya Lok Dal ticket.

It is in Uttar Pradesh that the NDA is likely to incur its heaviest losses. According to the survey, NDA is likely to get 35% of the vote share, down 8% from 2014. Others, mostly SP and BSP together are likely to get 53% votes, way ahead of the NDA. The UPA has gone up from 4% to 12%. A SP-BSP-Congress-RLD alliance is likely to lead to a sweep in Uttar Pradesh. This would be a huge setback for the NDA which won 73 seats in this politically crucial state in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections. Add to this the likely post-poll support of the Left and the Trinamool Congress, Modi could get reduced to a one-term Prime Minister.

Given the centrality of the BSP to the Opposition's prospects, the picture of Congress president Sonia Gandhi and Bahujan Samaj Party supremo Mayawati hugging each other during HD Kumaraswamy's swearing-in ceremony might end up being the iconic image of the Opposition against Prime Minister Modi.