Bad news for BJP: 58% people in Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh & MP want to vote it out

The Bharatiya Janata Party might be on its way out in Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh and possibly even Madhya Pradesh if the latest survey by Rajasthan Patrika is any indication. Patrika spoke to 45,000 voters across the three states and found that there is a strong desire for change among them. 58% of the voters covered in the survey said that they intend to vote out the incumbent government in their state.

The BJP is in power in all the three states, which go to polls towards the end of this year. This is bad news for the for the party. Not only does it mean the prospect of losing crucial states in the Hindi heartland to the Congress, it also means that the party will be on the backfoot in the run-up to the 2014 Lok Sabha elections scheduled a few months after these Assembly elections. However, the situation does vary from state to state. The survey data reveals that the dissatisfaction against BJP is the highest in Rajasthan and the lowest in Madhya Pradesh. Here are some key findings of the survey.

• 62.59% respondents in Rajasthan want a change in government as against 58.78% in Chhattisgarh and 54.97% in Madhya Pradesh.

• 62.95% respondents in Rajasthan, 54.24% in Chhattisgarh and 51.23% in Madhya Pradesh said they are dissatisfied with the performance of the state government.

• 65.71% respondents in Rajasthan, 53.28% in Chhattisgarh and 53.10% respondents in Madhya Pradesh said “No” when asked if they wanted to give the incumbent government another five years.

• On being asked whether the BJP government in the state has been able to meet their expectations, 63.33% respondents replied “No” in Rajasthan. 56.17% in Chhattisgarh and 51.35% in Madhya Pradesh gave the same response.

• 60.84% respondents in Rajasthan and 54.05% in Chhattisgarh said that the BJP did not have full control over the government. However in Madhya Pradesh, the Shivraj Singh Chouhan government has a better reputation as 50.11% respondents said that the BJP did have full control over the government.

• What might go against BJP's claim of good governance is that in Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh a majority of respondents don't feel that it has done a better job than the earlier Congress government. On being asked if the BJP government has been better than the Congress, 60.84% respondents in Rajasthan and 54.05% respondents in Chhattisgarh replied “No”. Here again, Madhya Pradesh was different. 54.93% respondents in the state said that the BJP government is better than the earlier Congress government.

• However, the Congress hasn't fared very well as an Opposition party according to a majority of respondents in the three states. 59.76% respondents in Rajasthan, 61.61% in Madhya Pradesh and 51.04% Chhattisgarh said that the Congress has not done an effective job as an Opposition.

• A finding that indicates that the three states are on the cusp of regime change is that a majority of respondents felt that the Congress should be given a chance to form the government. 58.95% respondents in Rajasthan, 51.42% in Chhattisgarh and 50.84% in Madhya Pradesh said that the Congress should be given a chance to rule the respective states.

• The three states have traditionally witnessed bipolar contests between the BJP and the Congress and this time won't be any different. An overwhelming majority of respondents in all three states said that there is no need for a third front in their respective states.