Indian states that are leading economy to recovery from Covid-19 lockdown

Contributing almost 27% of the nation’s gross domestic product (GDP), five states in India are leading a recovery in the economy as it gradually comes out from the world’s biggest lockdown, according to a study by Elara Securities.

Punjab, Tamil Nadu, Haryana, Kerala and Karnataka have witnessed a revival in activity, on the basis of an analysis of indicators like power consumption, traffic movement, arrival of farm products at wholesale market and Google mobility figure, an economist at Elara Securities in Mumbai, Garima Kapoor wrote.

Some of the most industrialized states like Maharashtra, Gujarat were lagging behind as tough measures were still in place to curb the spread of coronavirus.

India will start a phased lifting of the lockdown starting 8th July, allowing malls, restaurants and places of worship to reopen in areas where infections are under control.

"The best stimulus India can have is resumption of normal economic activity," Kapoor said. "The country is witnessing an improvement in activity but it remains sporadic."

The state of Haryana and Punjab were among those states that witnessed an improvement in electricity requirement, reflecting demand from farm operations, the study displayed. Delhi also showed a rise in demand of power and also mobility trends.

Garima examined Google search trends to see whether or not consumers are shifting consumption pattern as they adapt to a ‘new way of life’.

The analysis put on display that there was pent-up demand for salon services, air conditioners, air travel, bikes, vacuum cleaners and washing machines. Searches with panic-buying when the lockdown was first announced -- such as pharmacy and grocery stores and liquid soaps -- have eased. Consumers have not given up looking for items like earphones, hair oil, laptops, mobile phones, jewelery, mops, toys and microwave ovens.

"We anticipate demand to persist in the upcoming months, as some are virus-related shifts in patterns," Kapoor said.

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