Coronavirus: Without social distancing, one Covid-19 patient can infect 406 others within 30 days shows ICMR study

Luv Agarwal, an official from health ministry, quoted a study conducted by Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR), to reiterate the importance of lockdown and social distancing. He said the study indicated that a single coronavirus patient can potentially pass infection to 406 people in under 30 days without any social distancing, however if the proper norms are followed the possibility of the infection can be reduced to just 2.5 people per patient in the same timeframe.

Making reference to a recent study, Luv Agarwal stated that social distancing was the most important tool to reduce the spread of Covid-19.

According to the ministry dossier, the virus has claimed 117 lives in India, as per the ministry the total number of positive cases by Tuesday mounted to 4,421, including 354 cases in the last 24 hours. As of yet 326 persons have recuperated or discharged.

Mr Aggarwal stated that R0 or R naught – unit to measure how transmittable an infectious disease is - for Covid-19 it is somewhere in the middle of 1 to 4. The study, he stated, supposed the R0 for coronavirus at 2.5.

Enumerating on the basis of this supposition, the researchers found that if a single coronavirus patient goes on with his life without complying with any quarantine or self isolation, she/he would give the virus to 406 people within 30 days. The number curtails to just 2.5 if the social distancing norms are followed.

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