Coronavirus in India: States that have started flattening the curve

The total number of Covid-19 cases in India may have sky rocketed, but the diseases has not strewed informally on all parts of the country. In excess of 70% of the cases in India are in the five most badly hit states. To keep up with which way things will go, it is imperative to look at all the states and see how it is coping.

In eight of the seventeen states with more than 500 cases, the number of new infections is mounting. Maharashtra, the worst hit state, had a rolling five day average increase of 1,700 cases on May 18th. What the rolling average allows us to do is see the model in the rise of cases that is not projected by the absolute number of infections. Over the past week, Rajasthan and Delhi’s cases per day have also gone up.

Just four states seems to be flattening their infection curves. The rate of growth appears to have peaked in Tamil Nadu last week even though the number of cases remains considerably high. West Bengal’s flattening curve, though, could be put down to it having one of the lowest testing rates in the country. Punjab and Haryana have seen sharp decrease in new cases since the beginning of this month (May).

The state of Kerala, which has been eulogized for its handling of the pandemic, has witnessed a rise in cases after taking in people from outside their state border.

Five of the states with more than 500 cases show a fluctuation trend. Such as, Madhya Pradesh added about 150 cases daily for the five days leading to 18th April, when the total cases in the state stood at 1,300. However, in the five days leading to 22nd April, the state added an average of 57 cases everyday. By 27th April, the state was adding more than 100 cases everyday.

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