As 2019 polls end today, Modi's future as PM linked to BJP's performance in Uttar Pradesh

When Varanasi in Uttar Pradesh, goes to polls on Sunday along with 58 other constituencies across the country for the final phase of 2019 Lok Sabha elections, there is not a shadow of doubt that people will endorse Prime Minister Narendra Modi whole-heartedly as they did in 2014.

But the big question is how many more seats his charisma and performance over the last five years will pull in Uttar Pradesh itself for him to be able to return as Prime Minister.

After a gruelling, often acrimonious campaign spread over seven phases in 543 constituencies across the country, Prime Minister Modi’s future is linked to his party’s performance in Uttar Pradesh, more than any other state.

BJP won a spectacular 71 out of 80 seats in UP last time, with its ally, Apna Dal, providing the icing on the cake with two more seats in 2014. A year later, BJP and Modi did even better in the UP assembly polls by winning 325 seats and decimated the Opposition.

Sworn enemies that they were, the BSP and the SP, fighting their battle for survival, not only came together for 2019 elections, but from all accounts, with their combined might, are set to cause considerable damage to the BJP’s winning prospects in the state.

The change – at least on the surface – is so dramatic that BSP supremo Mayawati, who failed to open her account in 2014, is a strong contender for the prime minister’s post thanks to the mahaghatbandhan she forged with Samajwadi Party’s Akhilesh Yadav.

Those who want to see the back of Modi put their estimate of the SP-BSP harvest at around 60-65 seats, as the Congress, though not part of the alliance, is also working hard with the sole purpose of defeating its bête noire, Narendra Modi.

But, the BJP chief Amit Shah and UP Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath seem to reckon that they have contained the damage to a great extent and the loss of seats could be in the range of 25 to 30, which they hope to make up in other states like West Bengal and Odisha.

Amit Shah and Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who addressed a joint press conference on Friday, expressed confidence that the “ruling dispensation” will come back to power with a comfortable majority.

While Shah spoke of winning “more than 300 seats,” a relaxed looking Modi said, that “a government with full majority will come back after remaining in power for five years. This is probably happening after a very long time. This is a big deal in itself.”

If that happens, it will no doubt be a ‘a big deal’ because it was Rajiv Gandhi who led Congress back to power in 1984 after Indira Gandhi’s assassination. But Mrs Gandhi did not complete her term. Manmohan Singh-led UPA government got two back-to-back terms, but on both occasions, it was a coalition government.

Coming back to Varanasi, Prime Minister Modi should be looking forward to improve upon the 3.7 lakh margin he secured over his nearest rival, Arvind Kejriwal of the Aam Admi Party last time.

Among other seats in Uttar Pradesh, there will be added interest on Gorakhpur which Yogi Adityanath won by 3.12 lakh margin in 2014, but in a by-election two years later, the BJP lost it by 21,000 votes. Interestingly, however, Praveen Kumar Nishad, who wrested it on behalf of the ‘mahaghatbandhan’ is now part of the NDA.

All the 13 seats in Punjab are going to polls on Sunday, where Congress Chief Minister Capt Amrinder Singh is expected to deliver big for his party. How much of damage Rahul Gandhi’s mentor Sam Pitroda’s statement, ‘hua toh hua’ referring to anti-Sikh riots of 1984 will have on Congress’s electoral prospects remains to be seen.

BJP has fielded bollywood actor Sunny Deol from Gurudaspur in a bid to reclaim the seat which it lost to Sunil Jakhar of the Congress. Another actor and 4-time MP Vinod Khanna had won in 2014, but after his death in 2017, the Congress had prevailed here in a by-election.

Harsimrat Kaur Badal, daughter-in-law of 5-time Punjab CM Parkash Singh Badal and wife of Akali Dal chief Sukhbhbir Singh Badal, is seeking a third straight term from Bhatinda, though the Congress and the AAP are trying their best to spoil her chances.

Kejriwal’s AAP, in fact, after surprising everyone by winning four seats in Punjab (the only parliamentary seats it won among 430-odd seats it contested across the country in 2014), is now in total disarray after the party split.

In the Union Territory of Chandigarh, actor Kirran Kher is reportedly struggling to retain the seat fighting against Pawan Kumar Bansal of the Congress, a former Union minister. Kher, accused of being inaccessible, is banking on Modi’s popularity to come to her rescue.

In Bihar’s Patna Sahib, it is prestige battle between mega star of yesteryears Shatrughan Sinha, who switched over from BJP to Congress just before the polls and Union minister Ravi Shankar Prasad, who is contesting the polls for the first time.

In West Bengal’s Diamond Harbour, Mamata Banerjee’s nephew, Abhiek Banerjee – who is also heir apparent of the Trinamool Congress – is taking on Nilanjan Roy of BJP and Faud Halim of CPM.
The aggressive campaigning by the BJP to make inroads in West Bengal unnerved ‘Didi’ – who has her own prime ministerial ambitions this time – to such an extent that the clashes between TMC and BJP workers reached a dangerous flashpoint, forcing the Election Commission to cut short campaigning by a day.

As the counting day nears, there is every possibility that Sonia Gandhi will enter the fray to act a ‘mediator’ among squabbling Opposition parties to cobble together an alliance to keep the BJP out of power. Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister Chandrababu Naidu is already busy talking to everyone who matters in the Opposition, though Mamata and Mayawati are inclined to wait on the sidelines till the results are out.

Ghulam Nabi Azad’s statement that Congress will not insist on the prime minister’s post is intended to send the message across to other parties that the primary objective is to keep BJP and Narendra Modi out of the picture.

The Mahaghatbandhan is banking on the NDA falling short of the majority mark and hoping to lure potential allies like BJD, TRS and YSRCP to its side with the promise of ‘plum’ ministries.

But, if the BJP’s tally is somewhere between 220 and 240 and the existing allies, Shiv Sena, Janata Dal (United), Akali Dal and AIADMK manage to bring in another 40 seats or so, the momentum will quickly shift to the BJP and the return of Narendra Modi as prime minister.