According to political analysts in the state, Mukul Roy's resignation from the Trinamool Congress could prove to be the boost that finally allows the BJP to unseat CM Mamata Banerjee.

Roy, who will resign from his Rajya Sabha seat in the near future, could potentially bring with him lakhs of TMC party workers should the BJP induct him into the party. Even if Roy decides to stay out of the BJP fold and start his own party instead, he will only end up cutting into the TMC vote bank, further aiding the BJP.

Increased organisational strength

Underscoring this, Amol Mukherjee, political analyst and former principal of Presidency College, said, "Roy's resignation will not only weaken Trinamool Congress in Bengal, but will help BJP to increase its organisation in the state."

While the BJP's voteshare in the state has seen gains, Mukherjee points out that this hasn't translated into organisational gains. "Mukul Roy has tremendous organisational capability and networks in various blocks in the state, and this is what BJP is eyeing to strengthen their base in Bengal," he opines.

Even BJP chief Amit Shah, in his recent visit to Bengal, urged all party leaders to increase there base in various booths in West Bengal, telling them them to speed up the process of increasing their organisational strength in Bengal.

Roy would be an integral part of this plan. A founding member of the TMC, he was responsible for expanding and managing the organisation of the party. Roy knows all the ins and out of the party's machinery, including selection of candidates, and party funding. All of this could prove invaluable to the BJP.

The Assam model

According to Mukherjee, this is the same strategy the Assam BJP has adopted. This is evident in the case of Himanta Biswa Sarma, once one of the most trusted lieutenants of former chief minister Tarun Gogoi. When Sarma left the Congress to join the BJP, 10 other Congress leaders followed him, allowing the BJP to break the Congress' stronghold over Assam. Already, the BJP has given indications that this is, indeed, the case.

The BJP has already claimed that Roy’s resignation is a clear indication of unhappiness in TMC.

The party has already claimed that Roy’s resignation is a clear indication of unhappiness in the party, and that more leaders are going to resign from the TMC as they cannot voice their opinion.

Weighing in on the issue, Siddharth Nath Singh, UP's Health Minister, said, “No leaders can sustain in a party where dictatorship prevailed. Mamata Banerjee is the supreme authority and she does not want to listen to any leaders opinion inside the party. This has created rift between Banerjee and several leaders inside the party.”

Clearly, the BJP is hoping that Roy's departure will lead to an Assam-like situation, with leaders the BJP was struggling to dislodge now joining the party instead, strengthening the BJP in a state where its own candidates have struggled.

Breaking the TMC

This is something that the TMC is well aware of. Speaking to Catch, a senior TMC leader said, "Roy was a very senior leader in the party, and now a section of leaders are fearing that Roy’s absence from the party may create more intra-party feuds inside the TMC, which may damage the party’s face.”

While the TMC has issued statements slating Roy, and presenting an unphased public image, rumblings within the party are anything but confident. “The Trinamool Congress will face a trying time to retain all its leaders and MLAs, as there are high chances that Roy might poach a few of the leaders after his decision to step down from the party,” a section of TMC leaders confided to Catch.

“Roy even has the potential to break bonds between party leaders if he wishes to damage the party,” the same leaders lamented, adding, "The fear looms large amongst most of the TMC leaders and the party needs to chalk out ways on how to strengthen the unity amongst themselves. If BJP inducts him in their party, then he might give all his support to break TMC."

Changing Bengal's political paradigm

A section of political analysts feel that Roy, an influential player in Bengal's political landscape, was a key TMC functionary when it came to communicating with politicians across party lines. Additionally, Roy was instrumental in growing TMC's base in Tripura and Punjab.

No other TMC leader, with the possible exception of Dinesh Trivedi who already stands sidelined in TMC, has the clout to connect with politicians across party lines in this way. This makes Roy's resignation doubly dangerous, as he could also poach leaders from other parties opposed to the BJP like the Congress and Leftist parties.

Whatever Mukul Roy's decision, Bengal will witness a new political scenario post-puja.

Imankalyan Lahiri, a professor of International Relations at Jadavpur University, said, "Whatever Mukul Roy's decision is, Bengal will witness a new equation in the political scenario post-puja. If we Roy joins the BJP, then it will not only hurt the TMC, but Roy will have enemies in both Congress and CPI(M)."

This is already starting to play out, with Congress leader Abdul Mannan stating, “Roy has resigned from the party to save his own back. We have heard that he indulged in anti-party activities by speaking to central agencies, and thus he had to step down from the party before the party asked him to leave.”

This response betrays the Congress' fear that Roy could have an adverse impact, not just on its own fortunes in Bengal, but on any parties that oppose the BJP. Attacking Roy, the party hopes, could minimise this damage. The real impact, however, will only be seen post-puja celebrations, when Roy resigns from the Rajya Sabha and makes known his next step.