Rahul on the ascent: Lokniti CSDS survey. Modi should start worrying

One of the key takeaways of the Mood of the Nation Survey (third instalment), conducted by research programme Lokniti, Delhi-based Centre for Study of Developing Societies and ABP News is the acceptability that Rahul Gandhi seems to have gained. He still lags Prime Minister Narendra Modi's appeal but the gap is shrinking and shrinking fast.

Almost a quarter (24%) of those who took the survey spontaneously named the Congress President when asked about which leader they would prefer as the PM. Modi retained his lead, with the spontaneous preference of 34% respondents. That makes for a gap of 10 percentage points, much lower than the 17 pp gap between the two as seen in the second instalment of the study only five months ago.

In January, 20% of the sample population had rooted for Gandi and 37% for the current PM. 

Support for other leaders, most notably West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee and Bahujan Samaj Party supremo Mayawati, remained more or less the same.

In one aspect Gandhi actually trumped Modi: While both were liked by 43% respondents, Modi was disliked by 36% and Gandhi by 32%. That makes him a net gainer over Modi. He converted more haters into likers too: 29% compared with Modi's 25%. Also, he lost fewer likers – 35% of those who disliked Modi said they earlier liked him. For Gandhi, the figure was 22%.

Notably, a year ago only 9% had named Gandhi. Clearly, he has come a long way in this one year. 

In fact political watchers have keenly followed a sort of a transformation in the 47-year-old. Gone are the days when he would be ridiculed as 'Pappu', carrying the baggage of incumbency of a decade-long Manmohan Singh government. Modi would tear him and mother Sonia apart at political rallies referring to his 'silver spoon' entitlements.

There was a time when his vibes were interpreted as of that of a 'reluctant prince', like his father, former PM Rajeev Gandhi, was once talked about. After the results for the 2014 General Elections became clear, Rahul came for an evening press conference laughing, leaving political watchers bewildered. Congress-led United Progressive Alliance had been throughly trashed in the polls.

His image didn't improve in the next couple of years, as was the case with the Grand Old Party's political performance. The only succour was a victory in Bihar as part of the Grand Alliance with the Rashtriya Janata Dal and Janata Dal (United). Meanwhile he would disappear from the scene, drawing ridicule from political opponents.

Loyalty within his party did not disappear though. Early last year he came across as a more keen participant in the political firmamment during elections to the Assemblies of a handful of states. Congress won in Punjab, largely thanks to the leadership of current chief minister Amarinder Singh but lackadaisically let go of opportunities to form government in Goa and Manipur. What was noticed was, however, the way Rahul reached out to Samajwadi Party leader and then CM Akhilesh Yadav in Uttar Pradesh. Eventually UP was won by the Bharatiya Janata Party, but Rahul succeeded in creating a bond with Akhilesh, three years his junior.

Congress shed some of its ennui when it fought tooth and nail to retain Ahmed Patel's Rajya Sabha seat from Gujarat last August.

Rahul faced flak again when he left for Italy. But ever since his image has only improved: He cut an impressive figure at an interaction at University of California, Berkeley and kept the tempo going once back home – taking a keener interest in rejigging the party in order to bring back “inner-party democracy”.

On the other hand, another interesting show unfolded in the virual sphere, thanks to a young and vibrant social media team led by Divya Spandana. Instead of getting trolled all the time, Team Rahul started giving it back as good as it came. On Twitter, @OfficeOfRG changed to a more personal @RahulGandhi, comunications improved underscored by a nonchalance perhaps best showcased when he introduced his pet dog Pidi. A new, more confident Rahul had unmistakenly took the stage.

And twitterati seemed to like it, driving up his follower count. It's currently at 6.9 million – still way behind Modi's 42.6 million, but increasing every day as are the 'likes', which now often overshadow the PM's count.

Towards the end of last year he dived headlong into the Gujarat Assembly elections, touring the state extensively, putting up a frontal attack on the incumbent BJP government and promoting young 'uns be it from within Congress (Alpesh Thakore) or from outside (Hardik Patel, Jignesh Mevani).

The hardwork paid off. Nobody thought the Congress to oust the BJP in the PM's backyard, but the results were way closer than expected – BJP stopped at 99, with Congress only 22 seats behind.

By the time the results were out Rahul had assumed the office of party chief. In March this year he stamped his authority on the party at its two-day plenary, ramping up the offensive against the incumbent government.

The recently concluded Karnataka elections saw him take charge, touring the state extensively, trying to set an agenda without stepping into distractions put up the the BJP. The Congress lost, but ensured that the BJP would be kept out of power by swift coalition politics – an 180-degree turn of the image it put across in Goa and Manipur last year.

His work is likely to only intensify with elections lined up in Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan, building up the crescendo to next year's general elections. The image makeover would surely come in handy.

The survey released Thursday too indicates that his sustained stands on issues related to the marginalised sections of the society were paying off. Among Dalit respondents, 25% preferred Rahul as the next PM, up from 18% five months ago. That ties with Modi's ratings among the community, which in fact has shrunk from 35%.

Among Adivasis, Rahul's acceptability was even higher – 30%, up from 27%. Modi, on the other hand, dropped to 37% from 42%.

If these trends continue along with the new-found bonhomie among Opposition parties, PM Modi should start worrying. The last year of the current five-year term begins in two days, after all.