Oscars 2017 predictions: Will Moonlight do a Spotlight and upset La La Land?
Awards season in the film industry reaches its climax this Sunday, 26 February with the 89th Academy Awards at the Dolby Theatre in Hollywood, California.
The Oscar nominations for 2017, thankfully, don't lack diversity. Many black actors and actresses, and even a certain director, are expected to take home big prizes. Who knows, maybe a movie with a black director and a black cast will even win the biggest prize of the night.
Competition is a wonderful thing, and we'll just see how many of those record-equalling 14 nominations La La Land can convert into trophies. Last year it was Spotlight that clinched an unexpected victory over The Revenant. Will the same be happening this year?
This year's host is late night comedian Jimmy Kimmel – a welcome change from last years host, Chris Rock, who was underwhelming. In a year of Trump, Trump and more Trump, there is expected to be Trump-bashing in equal parts from the hosts and the various acceptance speeches.
But awards will still remain the biggest takeaway, rather literally, on the night, so let's get right on to predicting who's going to win.
Nominees:
- Arrival
- Fences
- Hacksaw Ridge
- Hell or High Water
- Hidden Figures
- La La Land
- Lion
- Manchester By The Sea
- Moonlight
Who will win: Moonlight
Who should win: Moonlight
Outside chance: Manchester By The Sea
La La Land has racked up more awards than anyone could have imagined. It's also, crucially, edged out Moonlight in several of the preceding big award nights. What might be in Moonlight's favour is the La La Land backlash among Oscar voters.
While La La Land may win undeservedly, the movie of the year, and the one that deserves all the accolades, is Barry Jenkins' Moonlight, a movie about a young black man living in America. With a black director and a black cast, this deeply moving tale of Chiron might just do a Spotlight and cause a major upset.
It may be a two-horse race, as it has been all season long, but Manchester By The Sea, with its strong storyline and tightly knit camerawork, has a chance to surprise. Especially led by Casey Affleck's superb performance.
Nominees:
- Casey Affleck, Manchester By The Sea
- Andrew Garflied, Hacksaw Ridge
- Ryan Gosling, La La Land
- Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic
- Denzel Washington, Fences
Who will win: Casey Affleck, Manchester By The Sea
Who should win: Casey Affleck, Manchester By The Sea
Outside chance: Denzel Washington, Fences
This one is going to be a close call. With the backlash among Oscar voters, La La Land star Ryan Gosling has fallen off the radar. A win for him is pretty much unlikely. It basically comes down to Casey Affleck in the moving drama about taking care of his nephew in Manchester By The Sea or Denzel Washington as a powerful father in the play-adaptation Fences.
I'm going to go with Casey Affleck, despite his recent sexual harassment controversy and Washington's win at the SAG Awards.
Nominees:
- Isabelle Huppert, Elle
- Ruth Negga, Loving
- Natalie Portman, Jackie
- Emma Stone, La La Land
- Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins
Who will win: Emma Stone, La La Land
Who should win: Isabelle Huppert, Elle
Outside chance: Natalie Portman, Jackie
Emma Stone has all the momentum with her. Ever since La La Land's release, critics and viewers alike have had barely anything negative to say about Stone's performance. Isabelle Huppert, meanwhile, is far more deserving for her role as a rape victim in Elle, where she gave a stunning performance. In a year when she also had a strong performance in Things To Come, it is hard to rule her out.
The outside chance goes to Natalie Portman who portrayed the role of Jackie Kennedy in Jackie, but that one is highly unlikely.
Nominees:
- Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
- Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water
- Lucas Hedges, Manchester By The Sea
- Dev Patel, Lion
- Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals
Who will win: Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
Who should win: Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
Outside chance: Dev Patel, Lion
Mahershala Ali, playing the mentor to Chiron in Moonlight, gives an understated but nuanced performance that had everyone enthralled. If anyone has a chance of upsetting Ali, it would be Dev Patel in a Slumdog Millionaire-esque performance as a young adult on a mission to find his birth mother in Lion.
Nominees:
- Viola Davis, Fences
- Naomie Harris, Moonlight
- Nicole Kidman, Lion
- Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures
- Michelle Williams, Manchester By The Sea
Who will win: Viola Davis, Fences
Who should win: Viola Davis, Fences
Outside chance: Michelle Williams, Manchester By The Sea
Absolutely no one following the awards season this time around thinks that Viola Davis will be beaten. If anyone even dares to offer a suggestion, it would be Michelle Williams. This one is pretty much locked up. What gives Davis an even greater chance is the fact that the Supporting Actress category is the most successful category for black nominees.
Nominees:
- Kubo And The Two Strings
- Moana
- My Life As A Zucchini
- The Red Turtle
- Zootopia
Who will win: Zootopia
Who should win: Zootopia
Outside chance: Kubo And The Two Strings
Zootpia has been winning almost every award it was eligible for this season, including a Critics’ Choice Award, a Golden Globe, and six Annie Awards. There's no reason for its momentum to slowdown just before the Oscars. While Kubo and the Two String managed to beat Zootopia at the BAFTAs, there is no reason to think a repeat may happen. Who didn’t like Zootopia?
Nominees:
- Bradford Young, Arrival
- Linus Sandgren, La La Land
- Greig Fraser, Lion
- James Laxton, Moonlight
- Rodrigo Prieto, Silence
Who will win: Linus Sandgren, La La Land
Who should win: Bradford Young, Arrival
Outside chance: Greig Fraser, Lion
Emmanuel Lubezki is probably not going to win for a fourth year in a row following his wins for Gravity, Birdman, and The Revenant because he isn’t nominated. While Arrival is yet again not getting the love it deserves, La La Land is running away with undeserved love.
Bradford Young may be the first African-American cinematographer ever nominated for the award, but his magnificent work in Arrival is going to be overlooked by the work done by Sandgren in La La Land.
If anyone has a chance for an upset, it is Greig Fraser for his work in Lion.
Nominees:
- Joanna Johnston, Allied
- Colleen Atwood, Fantastic Beasts and Where To Find Them
- Consolata Boyle, Florence Foster Jenkins
- Madeline Fontaine, Jackie
- Mary Zophres, La La Land
Who will win: Madeline Fontaine, Jackie
Who should win: Madeline Fontaine, Jackie
Outside chance: Mary Zophres, La La Land
Barring a total sweep of the Oscars by La La Land, this award will be going to Madeline Fontaine for her work in recreating Jackie Kennedy’s closet in Natalie Portman-starrer Jackie. This isn’t a surety though.
Nominees:
- Denis Villeneuve, Arrival
- Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge
- Damien Chazelle, La La Land
- Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester By The Sea
- Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
Who will win: Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
Who should win: Damien Chazelle, La La Land
Outside Chance: Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester By The Sea
Three of the last five Best Director Oscars have gone to a film that didn’t win Best Picture. What’s likely is that, like last year, Moonlight will play the spoiler with Best Picture but lose out in a host of other awards including Best Director to Damien Chazelle.
The slim outside chance goes to Kenneth Lonergan, but that is unlikely to happen. A Mel Gibson win, meanwhile, will be the shock of the night.
Nominees:
- Fire at Sea
- I Am Not Your Negro
- Life, Animated
- O.J.: Made in America
- 13th
Who will win: O.J.: Made in America
Who should win: O.J.: Made in America
Outside chance: 13th
A 467-minute opus on the rise and fall of O.J. Simpson. Who can topple Ezra Edelman’s gripping achievement? It’s already won the P.G.A. and D.G.A. Awards. Don’t look for an upset here. Period.
Nominees:
- Joe Walker, Arrival
- John Gilbert, Hacksaw Ridge
- Jake Roberts, Hell or High Water
- Tom Cross, La La Land
- Nat Sanders and Joi McMillon, Moonlight
Who will win: Tom Cross, La La Land
Who should win: Joe Walker, Arrival
Outside chance: Nat Sanders and Joi McMillon, Moonlight
At the last three Oscars, Best Picture and Best Film Editing have gone to different films. If Moonlight is indeed to upset La La Land for Best Picture, then the latter will walk away with Best Film Editing.
Joe Walker was a big winner at the American Cinema Editor Awards back in January and deservedly so. We know that Arrival isn't getting any love from the Academy though. I’m going with La La Land here even though there are better options.
Nominees:
- Denmark: Land of Mine
- Sweden: A Man Called Ove
- Iran: The Salesman
- Australia: Tanna
- Germany: Toni Erdmann
Who will win: The Salesman
Who should win: The Salesman
Outside chance: Toni Erdmann
Going into Awards season, it was all Toni Erdmann with the momentum and critics praise. Thanks to Donald Trump becoming President and the Muslim Travel Ban that barred the Iranian director of The Salesman, Asghar Farhadi, from attending the Oscars, things have changed.
If Farhadi wins, this will be his second golden statue after winning for A Separation in 2012.
Nominees:
- Mica Levi, Jackie
- Justin Hurwitz, La La Land
- Dustin O'Halloran and Hauschka, Lion
- Nicholas Britell, Moonlight
- Thomas Newman, Passengers
Who will win: Justin Hurwitz, La La Land
Who should win: Justin Hurwitz, La La Land
Outside chance: Nicholas Britell, Moonlight
Who could deprive this year’s only nominated musical from Best Original Score? This is definitely Hurwitz' to lose.
Nominees:
- Audition (The Fools Who Dream), La La Land
- Can’t Stop the Feeling, Trolls
- City of Stars, La La Land
- The Empty Chair, Jim: The James Foley Story
- How Far I’ll Go, Moana
Who will win: City of Stars, La La Land
Who should win: City of Stars, La La Land
Outside chance: How Far I’ll Go, Moana
Again, it’s La La Land’s to lose with two songs nominated for Best Original Song. City of Stars has the edge over Audition.
Nominees:
- Patrice Vermette, Arrival
- Stuart Craig, Fantastic Beasts and Where To Find Them
- Jess Gonchor, Hail, Caesar!
- David Wasco, La La Land
- Guy Hendrix Dyas, Passengers
Who will win: David Wasco, La La Land
Who should win: Patrice Vermette, Arrival
Outside chance: Stuart Craig, Fantastic Beasts and Where To Find Them
It’s a known fact that Best Picture frontrunner sweeps the lesser known awards and this night will be no different. Arrival will once again be overlooked and David Wasco will be winning for La La Land.
Nominees:
- Eric Heisserer, Arrival
- August Wilson, Fences
- Allison Schroeder and Theodore Melfi, Hidden Figures
- Luke Davies, Lion
- Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
Who will win: Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
Who should win: Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
Outside chance: August Wilson, Fences
Other than Best Supporting Actor, this is the only sure shot category for Moonlight. It did win the Original Screenplay award at the Writers Guild awards but, that controversy aside, it will walk away with this prize.
Nominees:
- Taylor Sheridan, Hell or High Water
- Damien Chazelle, La La Land
- Yorgos Lanthimos, Efthimis Filippou, The Lobster
- Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester By The Sea
- Mike Mills, 20th Century Woman
Who will win: Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester By The Sea
Who should win: Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester By The Sea
Outside chance: Damien Chazelle, La La Land
Kenneth Lonergan has been nominated twice before in this category - You Can Count on Me (2001) and Gangs of New York (2003). Lonergan should be walking away with the prize come Sunday, but one can’t be sure of La La Land’s momentum. This is a dead race between the two and it’s hard to predict which will win. I’m gonna go with Kenneth Lonergan by a whisker.
It’s safe to say that after garnering 14 nominations (tying the record), La La Land will be walking away with the most number of golden statues. The question to be asked is: Will it walk away with the most important awards on the night? I’m thinking probably not. With less than 24 hours to go, one doesn’t have to wait long to find out.
If you're in India and want to catch the show you can do so on Star Movies or Star Movies Select HD starting at 5:30 AM on Monday, 27 February. Again, if you don't own a TV, there are always multiple ways to catch it on streaming.
