Cong has golden chance to topple BJP in MP. But it needs to set its house in order

Three main factions

For the past several years, factionalism has been the bane of the Madhya Pradesh Congress, leading to its dismal performance in elections.

The grand old party continues to ignore how it has virtually become a fiefdom of senior state leaders. At present, there are three major factions in the party – led by former CM Digvijaya Singh, former Union minister Kamal Nath, and the scion of the state's biggest political family, Jyotiraditya Scindia.

State party chief Arun Yadav too holds sway over a small band of supporters, but his faction is dwarfed by the three bigwigs'. It is in this context that the party has failed to achieve a consensus on the next state chief, which has been due for the last several months.

Both Scindia and Nath are considered to be frontrunners, but the central leadership has so far not taken any decision, which has led to massive campaigns on social media by the supporters of each faction.

Several Facebook pages dedicated to the two leaders have been constantly pitching for their leader to be made the state chief.

The delay in announcing the successor to Yadav, whose term was to end in January, has led to speculation that are beginning to hurt the party's interests in the state. According to a Bhopal-based leader: “The local level leadership would be much better placed if the matter is sorted out at the earliest. Right now, they are just divided in different camps. The high command will have to define roles for each of these leaders, or else, the Congress will soon turn into a fish market, with supporters pitching for their respective leaders.”

Advantage Kamal Nath

Digvijaya, who clearly wields influence over the largest faction in the state, has repeatedly made his intentions of not returning to state politics clear, making it a Scindia vs Nath battle. Sources say Digvijaya clearly favours Nath over Scindia on certain issues, which could tilt the balance in the veteran leader's favour.

Even Nath's supporters argue that he has years of political experience compared to Scindia, who according to them, is politically naive. Moreover, they cite Nath's financial might as a strong enough reason to lead the party.

“Nath is a nine-time MP and has occupied every position in the government except for being the Chief Minister. His experience can be of great use in taking the party out of the mess it currently is in. Moreover, he alone can fund elections of many MLAs, which is a huge bonus. Scindia, however, has none of these qualities,” said a Nath supporter based in Bhopal.

He went on to add that Nath had himself told him that he does not need social media campaigns to get the post. “If I need it, I will express my wish to the high command,” Nath reportedly told him.

The case for Scindia

Meanwhile, Scindia's supporters claim that with age on his side, the young leader has far more acceptance than these faces, who don't hold that kind of sway over the large population of young voters.

Even the BJP leadership sees Scindia as a bigger threat than Nath, which is evident from the way the former is attacked by the ruling party in not only the state, but also in Parliament. It was far too evident during Lok Sabha proceedings on Monday, when certain BJP MPs from Madhya Pradesh targeted Scindia by calling him 'Maharaja' (since he is of 'royal' lineage), and accused him of pursuing upper caste politics.

Standing with farmers

A Bhopal-based Congress spokesperson ridiculed the talk of factionalism, but cautioned that if the party fails to win the 2018 elections, it will wreak havoc on the state unit, since the workers' morale would hit rock bottom. “Party workers would start looking for other parties to further their political ambitions,” he said.

He, however, sees hope with the recent events that have put Chouhan on the back foot, and given the Congress a chance to present itself as a party that stood with the farmers during the recent crisis.

“Factions are there in every state. The recent rallies on farmer issues have seen these leaders shun their differences and collectively expose the misdeeds of the Chouhan government. This is a beginning, and people, particularly farmers, are beginning to sway towards us,” the spokesperson said.

This version was corroborated by farmer leader Irfan Jafri of the Kisan Jagriti Sangathan, who claimed that farmers were beginning to say that the Congress government was better than Shivraj's. “After the Mandsaur incident, their top leaders came out in support of farmers, which should help them politically. But, they are not the only ones, even leaders from AAP and Swaraj Abhiyan are mobilising support on the ground. It remains to be seen who gets the support of the farming community,” he said.

Jafri added that what had further antagonised the farming community were the statements made by BJP leaders. Calling agitating farmers 'smugglers' and citing 'failed love affairs' as the reason for them committing suicide clearly added to the preception of the BJP being an anti-farmer party.

It is for this reason that Congress can reap political dividends out of the farmer distress, considering 42% of the state's population are farmers, while 28% are engaged in farm labour. If this section decides to vote in favour of the Congress, it could be the turning point for the 2018 elections.

The Shivraj factor

However, even the Congress spokesperson expressed wariness about Chouhan and his shrewd brand of politics. He claimed that the Congress high command would have to sit with these leaders across the table and come to some sort of consensus on how to exploit this anti-BJP sentiment.

“Or else Shivraj, BJP and RSS will leave no stone unturned to regain their popularity. Having been in power for 15 years, the RSS has penetrated even the remotest corners of the state, and if we lose our momentum now, we will be staring at yet another defeat, which could also signal the party's wipe out from the state,” he concluded.

In recent times, the Congress has been focusing on reviving the party in different states, which has reflected in its efforts to bring a balance between youth and experience in the state units. Several states have got new teams of office bearers, but Madhya Pradesh has not yet seen any dramatic changes, which reflects how the leadership is carefully weighing its options before taking the final call.

Whatever the decision, the local leadership wants the high command to act and act quickly, before the farmer agitation loses steam.